Assumptions – Defy the old saying that results in “Ass..u..me”
Reading time: 3 – 4 minutes
Fifth post in the series on Strategic Planning
There is an old saying that to “assume” makes an “ass out of you and me”. For my international readers this is a play on the word “assume”. If you break it up, it looks like this “ass u me”. However, in strategic planning a set of assumptions is important. It is especially important if you have delegated some of the planning to other people in your team.
Let me give you an example of the assumption trap. The board or your investors or the CEO asks you for a forecast for a new product or a potential acquisition. You diligently put it together and present it. It is accepted. Then, when it is time to implement the forecast through marketing and sales activities, you are told that this incremental forecast must be met within the current budget! YOU were assuming that a new product or acquired product would be given additional budget resources for marketing and sales. THEY were assuming they could get the additional revenues for no additional cost. So, actually, this is a good example of the old saying about “assume”. An “ass” was made out of “u” and “me”. Now you are trapped. I have seen this happen many times. It is a matter of communication. And, it is easy for busy leaders to overlook this important part of planning.
Going into the planning process a number of assumptions should be addressed and discussed to give those doing the planning some guidance. Here are some examples:
• The economy will grow or decline by Y%.
• The market categories we compete in will grow by Z%.
• A marketing budget of $2 trillion dollars will be available. (Don’t you wish!)
• A sales budget of $X dollars.
• New product CureAll will be delayed until September for launch.
• Product revisions for the Stitch-me-up Surgical Robot will be complete in April.
• The new manufacturing line required to satisfy sales growth will be online on time in June.
• The acquisition of the Pulsar-Ocular-Enucleator will be complete by August.
• Three new products will have their CE mark by February so they can be launched in Europe eight months prior to US launch.
• No new competitive disruptive technology will be introduced in the year.
When discussing and agreeing on assumptions, it is common to come across information gaps. Perhaps the needed information wasn’t captured or included in the data gathering phase. Someone will have to be tasked with getting this information.
In strategic planning, having the assumptions out for all to see keeps the planning process honest. It provides good guidance. And, if one of the assumptions changes, then it is revised in the quarterly review along with whatever it affects. For example, a product will be ready for an early launch. Then new strategic and tactical priorities need to be set.
For the company leader: Think about the assumptions that should be made going into the year. You are in control of some of them. This needs to be communicated. Then schedule a meeting with the planning team to discuss the assumptions they will be working under.
For the manager that is managing upward and trying to initiate planning: Put yourself in the CEO and CFOs’ shoes. Try to imagine what the assumptions might be. Then talk to other leaders whose activities may affect your ability to implement your plan. For example, talk to the Director of Manufacturing to be sure the manufacturing capacity for the Stich-Me-Up Robot will be increased on time. Finally, schedule a meeting with your boss to discuss the assumptions and come to agreement on them.
In the next post we will dive into the SWOT analysis so you can avoid calling in the SWAT team.